Limited US attack on Iranian Revolutionary Guards bases in sight

Our Washington sources report that president George W. Bush is closer than ever before to ordering a limited missile-air bombardment of the IRGC-al Qods Brigade’s installations in Iran. It is planned to target training camps and the munitions factories pumping fighters, missiles and roadside bombs to the Iraqi insurgency, Lebanese Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza.

Iran is geared up for counteraction.

US intelligence estimates that Tehran’s counteraction will likewise be on a limited scale and therefore any US-Iranian military encounter will not be allowed to explode into a major confrontation. Because this US assault is not planned to extend to Iran’s nuclear installations, Tehran is not expected to hit back at distant American targets in the Persian Gulf or at Israel.

DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report, however, that Iran’s military preparations for countering an American attack are far broader than envisaged in Washington. Tehran would view a US attack on the IRGC bases as a casus belli and might react in ways and on a scale unanticipated in Washington.

Two days ago, Iran’s defense minister Gen. Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar warned: “Iran’s Armed Forces are fully prepared to counter any military attack with any intensity and to make the enemy regret initiating any such incursions.”

According to DEBKAfile’s Iranian and military sources, the IRGC had by mid-May completed their preparations for a US missile, air or commando assault on their command centers and bases in reprisal for Iranian intervention in Iraq.

These preparations encompass al Qods’ arms, most of them undercover, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Sudan. At home, the Revolutionary Guards have evacuated their key bases together with manpower and equipment to regular army sites or temporary quarters in villages located in remote corners of eastern and northern Iran. Their main headquarters and central training center at the Imam Ali University in northern Tehran are deserted except for sentries on the gates.

Indoctrination seminaries and dormitories hosting fighting strength in the holy town of Qom are empty, as is the Manzariyah training center east of the capital.

Deserted too is the main training camp near Isfahan for insurgents and terrorists from Iraq, Afghanistan, Baluchistan, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. It is here that they take courses from friendly al Qods training staff on how to sabotage strategic targets such as routes, bridges and military installations, and the activation of the extra-powerful roadside bombs (EFPs) which have had such a deadly effect on American troops in Iraq.

真的要开打了么?

China’s way of breaking Western’s encirclement || 我听到了历史的脚步声-漫谈中国的反围剿之路

作者:小民2008 中华网

2008年的春天，是一个令人焦躁的春天。小民所在的一座南方城市，天气就象抽了风儿一样，今天穿毛衣，明天穿短袖，冷热无常。每天打开电脑，铺天盖地的信息从世界各个角落涌来。。。。。。石油价格上了110美圆。煤、铁矿、有色、黄金发了疯涨价。美圆一路狂贬。一些穷国因粮食短缺发生骚乱，股市毫无规律地上窜下跳。

这期间最有标志性的事件就是发生在中国西藏的骚乱和紧随而来的奥运圣火传递引发的东西方对抗。西方媒体的歇斯底里，中国民众的义愤填膺，充斥在大大小小的论坛里。说实在的，除了非洲那个快被人遗忘的角落里的人还能保持冷静以外，地球上主要国家的民众基本上都卷入了这场似乎是东西论战的焦躁旋涡之中。

事实如此清晰，立场如此相反，为什么？我们是否忽略了这场论战后面隐藏的深远的政治、经济、社会背景？

一、 事件发生时的时代背景

如果我们把2008年放回到历史长河中，以时间为X轴，以空间为Y轴，那么我们来看一下2008年人类世界究竟呈现出一个什么样的景象。

一来呢，从社会制度上看，世界上200多个国家中，实行资本主义私有制的国家占了绝大多数，实行社会主义制度的国家不到十个。资本主义国家中典型代表有美国等二十几个国家，基本上就是老欧洲和美、加、日、澳、新；发展中的资本主义国家有一百多个，既包括俄罗斯、东欧、印度、墨西哥、巴西、阿根廷、南非等有一定前景的国家，也包括亚、非、拉非常穷困的国家。由于这些国家的政体还没有完全定型，随时存在着变化的可能性（最近可关注一下委内瑞拉），我就把他们定义为非典型的资本主义国家。社会主义国家有中国、越南、古巴、朝鲜，领头的就是咱们中国；另外还有几个号称要走社会主义道路的国家（如老挝、蒙古）。实际上，按马克思的说法，中国和越南已称不上是经典意义上的社会主义国家了，照小民说，目前世界上只剩下非典型的社会主义国家了。

除了以上两类国家外，这个地球上其余国家要么是混合制，要么是君主制，还有军阀独裁、部落联盟等奇奇怪怪的国家。因这类国家基本上在世界上没有说话的份儿，流行说法就是没有话语权，小民在本文中就忽略不计了。

强者不需要同情 || We don’t need your SYMPATHY!

有人说中华民族是弱者，因为我们没有达尔文，没有法拉第，没有牛顿，也没有舒伯特，马克吐温。有人说中华民族是弱者，因为在我们的发明里没有汽车，飞机，蒸汽轮。。有人说中华民族是弱者，因为我们曾经被8艘炮舰占领，因为我们的国家被一个弹丸之国任意的羞辱，我们的人民被像牲畜一样任意的宰割。。有人说中华民族是天生的弱者，因为我们自从1840年就不知道什么是真正的胜利的滋味，因为我们在二战的最后一刻仍然在节节的败退，因为我们越过了麦克马洪却放弃了自己领土，因为我们逼近河内，却退回了友谊关。有人说中华民族习惯给自己定位为弱者，因为我们总是希望得到西方人的理解，因为我们擅长做煽情的宣传，因为即便是我们的乞丐也是没有尊严的双膝跪地的乞讨。因为我们的合资企业除了能提供廉价的劳动力，别无贡献！

他们认为我们是弱者，他们是谁？他们是日本，是欧美，甚至是我们当初手下留情的南韩，印度和越南。我想告诉你们，尤其是德国，英国，法国。你们听着，你们现在科技的领先，不代表你们永远科技领先！我们与你们比起来是弱，但是我们是有骨气的弱者，10年追不上你们，我就用50年，50年不够就百年。你们以为没有你们的帮助，我们就没有汽车，没有先进的武器。的确，我们甚至不能自主生产航空发动机，不能为我们的战士装备最先进的武器。你们有的我们也有，你们没有的我们更有—骨气。

你们听着，不要像打发乞丐似的捐出几个臭钱就认为自己是救世主，说实话，我们自己银行里面的钱多到可以买下你们该死的国家，多到可以不费一枪一弹让你的国家彻底崩垮，也许你还没有意识到你所谓的弱者，其实只是在蓄势待发。人的忍耐都是有限度的，你一而再再而三的挑衅，在我们的面前标榜你所谓的言论自由，所谓的普世价值，早晚有一天我们不会再忍受，记住一句话，要么在沉默中死亡，要么在沉默中爆发。。如果你够胆，就别躲在别人的背后，站出来—–和你所谓的弱者单挑！赢不了你，我也要让你记住我是不好惹的！

收起你那虚伪的50万欧元，100万英镑，我们可以连本带利的还给你。嗟来之食是喂狗的，不是给狗的主人的。记住一句话，我们是强者，不需要任何虚伪的同情。

最后送你们这些虚伪的国家一段话，梁启超的少年中国说

故今日之责任，不在他人，而全在我少年。少年智则国智，少年富则国富，少年强则国强，少年独立则国独立，少年自由则国自由，少年进步则国进步，少年胜于欧洲，则国胜于欧洲，少年雄于地球，则国雄于地球。红日初升，其道大光；河出伏流，一泻汪洋；潜龙腾渊，鳞爪飞扬；乳虎啸谷，百兽震惶；鹰隼试翼，风尘吸张；奇花初胎，矞矞皇皇；干将发硎，有作其芒；天戴其苍，地履其黄；纵有千古，横有八荒；前途似海，来日方长。美哉，我少年中国，与天不老！壮哉，我中国少年，与国无疆！

US ATTACK ON IRAN NEAR CERTAIN AND IMMEDIATE

US National Security Council has agreed in principle to attack Iran with the Secretary of Defense Robert Gates the only member urging delay. The target will be one of the al-Qods-run training camps near Tehran. The attack will be pinpoint and limited at the beginning, possibly by using cruise missiles.

Some form of ‘ultimatum’ for Iran to admit interference in Iraq has been sent to Iranian government on 5/8/08. Iranians’ response was quick, a refusal unless US stops meddling its internal affairs by supporting Iranian dissident groups.

The urgency of attack is prompted by the current Lebanon’s situation, in which Iranian-supported Hezballah is obviously gaining an upper hand against the US-and-Israel-supported Lebanese government. US’ decision to go ahead is also encouraged by the current China’s situation. China seems having been completely bogged down by the chaos around Olympic Games, terrorist attacks, Tibet insurgence, Taiwan’s uncertainty, various epidemics, plus the serious on-going massive earthquakes.

The final decision to go ahead lies with the US President. All the preparations are currently ready. Bush has missed three previous opportunities to attack Iran due to various causes and the lack of decision at the last moments. But he vowed he’d absolutely not leaving the Iran problem to his successor. Israel wants the attack as soon as possible. Gas masks have been distributed to all its people. All war drills have been completed so far. US and Israel believe that the Iranians will be allured to respond in force by counterattacking US forces in Iraq immediately after the first limited attack, which will produce a plausible excuse for the US and Israel to use tactical nuclear weapons to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

The first window for a full-scale attack will be 6/1 – 6/7.