Limited US attack on Iranian Revolutionary Guards bases in sight

Our Washington sources report that president George W. Bush is closer than ever before to ordering a limited missile-air bombardment of the IRGC-al Qods Brigade’s installations in Iran. It is planned to target training camps and the munitions factories pumping fighters, missiles and roadside bombs to the Iraqi insurgency, Lebanese Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza.

Iran is geared up for counteraction.

US intelligence estimates that Tehran’s counteraction will likewise be on a limited scale and therefore any US-Iranian military encounter will not be allowed to explode into a major confrontation. Because this US assault is not planned to extend to Iran’s nuclear installations, Tehran is not expected to hit back at distant American targets in the Persian Gulf or at Israel.

DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report, however, that Iran’s military preparations for countering an American attack are far broader than envisaged in Washington. Tehran would view a US attack on the IRGC bases as a casus belli and might react in ways and on a scale unanticipated in Washington.

Two days ago, Iran’s defense minister Gen. Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar warned: “Iran’s Armed Forces are fully prepared to counter any military attack with any intensity and to make the enemy regret initiating any such incursions.”

According to DEBKAfile’s Iranian and military sources, the IRGC had by mid-May completed their preparations for a US missile, air or commando assault on their command centers and bases in reprisal for Iranian intervention in Iraq.

These preparations encompass al Qods’ arms, most of them undercover, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Sudan. At home, the Revolutionary Guards have evacuated their key bases together with manpower and equipment to regular army sites or temporary quarters in villages located in remote corners of eastern and northern Iran. Their main headquarters and central training center at the Imam Ali University in northern Tehran are deserted except for sentries on the gates.

Indoctrination seminaries and dormitories hosting fighting strength in the holy town of Qom are empty, as is the Manzariyah training center east of the capital.

Deserted too is the main training camp near Isfahan for insurgents and terrorists from Iraq, Afghanistan, Baluchistan, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. It is here that they take courses from friendly al Qods training staff on how to sabotage strategic targets such as routes, bridges and military installations, and the activation of the extra-powerful roadside bombs (EFPs) which have had such a deadly effect on American troops in Iraq.

真的要开打了么?

US ATTACK ON IRAN NEAR CERTAIN AND IMMEDIATE

US National Security Council has agreed in principle to attack Iran with the Secretary of Defense Robert Gates the only member urging delay. The target will be one of the al-Qods-run training camps near Tehran. The attack will be pinpoint and limited at the beginning, possibly by using cruise missiles.

Some form of ‘ultimatum’ for Iran to admit interference in Iraq has been sent to Iranian government on 5/8/08. Iranians’ response was quick, a refusal unless US stops meddling its internal affairs by supporting Iranian dissident groups.

The urgency of attack is prompted by the current Lebanon’s situation, in which Iranian-supported Hezballah is obviously gaining an upper hand against the US-and-Israel-supported Lebanese government. US’ decision to go ahead is also encouraged by the current China’s situation. China seems having been completely bogged down by the chaos around Olympic Games, terrorist attacks, Tibet insurgence, Taiwan’s uncertainty, various epidemics, plus the serious on-going massive earthquakes.

The final decision to go ahead lies with the US President. All the preparations are currently ready. Bush has missed three previous opportunities to attack Iran due to various causes and the lack of decision at the last moments. But he vowed he’d absolutely not leaving the Iran problem to his successor. Israel wants the attack as soon as possible. Gas masks have been distributed to all its people. All war drills have been completed so far. US and Israel believe that the Iranians will be allured to respond in force by counterattacking US forces in Iraq immediately after the first limited attack, which will produce a plausible excuse for the US and Israel to use tactical nuclear weapons to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

The first window for a full-scale attack will be 6/1 – 6/7.